Technology has assumed a role akin to the most coveted resource of powerful nations.

And with artificial intelligence (AI) technologies rapidly changing our world, the race to develop the most advanced AI systems has also become the most consequential geopolitical fight of our time.

As governments and corporations alike vie for supremacy in AI development, the traditional battles over territory and natural resources are being overshadowed by the race to control the technological landscape.

With technology now a coveted resource, powerful political actors will seek both public and non-public alliances with the the most powerful players in the race for AI supremacy.

As this new frontier emerges, corporations such as Microsoft (US) and Tencent (China) are engaging in a soft power battle to create and own the most advanced AI technology on the global market.

This rivalry is sparking an AI arms race between the United States and China, setting the stage for a new type of war that can tip the current balance of power.

What Makes Microsoft The US leader In AI?

Microsoft’s long-standing commitment to AI, its investment in research and development, and its unique ability to bring AI technology to scale on an enterprise level make it the US leader in AI.

The company has been investing in AI for over a decade and has developed a wide range of solutions that span across industries, from healthcare to finance to retail.

Key Advantages of Microsoft:

• Cutting edge algorithms: The company has developed cutting-edge algorithms for natural language processing with its Turing Natural Language Generation (T-NLG). T-NLG excels in understanding and generating human-like text, enabling applications to comprehend context, produce coherent responses, and facilitate more nuanced interactions in various linguistic contexts.

• Cloud computing services: Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform is the world’s fastest growing cloud services provider, and it offers a wide range of AI tools and services that enable businesses to build, deploy, and manage AI applications with ease.

• Alliance With US Defense Sector: Microsoft has a long-standing partnership with the US government, particularly with the Department of Defense (DoD), and has been providing advanced AI technologies and solutions to support the US military in various areas such as cloud solutions, cybersecurity, and intelligence gathering.

What Makes Tencent The Chinese Leader In AI?

Tencent is a leading force in the Chinese tech ecosystem and is a powerhouse in areas like social media, gaming, and internet services.

Tencent’s foray into the AI arena is characterized by its strategic investments, acquisitions, and the integration of AI technologies into its diverse portfolio.

Key Advantages of Tencent:

• Massive user base: Tencent has over 1 billion monthly active users across its various platforms, giving it significant scale and reach. This vast user base provides the company with valuable data and insights on consumer behavior, which can be used for making personalized products and applications.

• Dominates across business sectors: Tencent operates across multiple industries, including social networking, online advertising, gaming, music, and mobile payments. This diversity allows the company to weather economic downturns and leverage different revenue streams.

• Alignment with the Chinese Communist Party: Tencent has significant political power, but it is worth noting that Tencent’s relationship with the CCP is complex and multifaceted. Chinese government’s influence over China’s technology sector is significant, and Tencent must navigate these political realities carefully as it continues to expand and innovate.

The New AI Wars: The Rise Of AI Military Technology

The new AI wars is the next big battle that won’t get much coverage on the news, but whoever wins will have a significant advantage in controlling a wide range of industries, as well as influence over the global economy.

Companies and nations with superior AI capabilities can leverage these technologies to unlock new revenue streams, streamline operations, and adapt swiftly to changing environments.

And as the competition between Washington and Beijing heats up, advances in AI technology will eventually lead to the integration of AI algorithms into military systems. This will enable unprecedented levels of precision on the battlefield, ushering in an era of warfare where norms and laws are yet to be established.

Examples of AI military technology weapons can include:

• Autonomous Swarm Robotics: Involves the deployment of interconnected robotic systems capable of coordinating and executing tasks collaboratively without direct human intervention.

Example: Swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with AI algorithms can be used for reconnaissance missions, target acquisition, and coordinated attacks on enemy positions.

• Explainable AI for Command and Control: Explainable AI (XAI) refers to AI systems that provide transparent explanations of their decision-making processes, enabling human operators to understand and trust AI-generated recommendations.

Example: XAI can enhance command and control operations by providing commanders with actionable insights and rationale behind AI-driven recommendations, facilitating more effective decision-making in complex and dynamic combat environments.

• AI-Powered Cyber Defense Systems: AI-powered cyber defense systems utilize machine learning algorithms to detect, analyze, and mitigate cyber threats in real-time, safeguarding military networks and communications infrastructure from cyber-attacks.

Example: An AI-powered cyber defense system can isolate a system before the onset of a ransomware attack, quarantine malicious files and restore affected data from backups. This is done in real-time and without human intervention.

AI Technology Is The New Great Game

The AI race between Washington and Beijing not only symbolizes the future of technology but underscores the broader narrative of how control over AI capabilities translates into dominion over vast aspects of human experiences.

Those who control AI technologies will control what global populations see, hear, and think. This will give them tremendous power to influence public opinion, shape discourse, and manipulate information flows. As a result, the potential impacts of their control extend far beyond military supremacy to include cultural, socioeconomic, and political hegemony. 

This means that the outcome over AI supremacy could significantly alter today’s global power dynamics and stability.

For example, if China were to gain an upper hand in developing and utilizing AI, this could lead to China having greater control over key strategic technologies and resources, such as advanced weapons or data processing and analytics tools.

To illustrate, by using weaponized AI, China could deploy AI-driven data processing and analytics tools capable of rapidly analyzing vast amounts of battlefield data in real-time. These tools could enable China to gain tactical advantages by predicting enemy movements.

Additionally, China’s advancements in AI-driven cyber warfare capabilities could aid sophisticated cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure and communications networks, posing significant challenges to US national security and economic stability.

In turn, the US will need to maintain its competitive edge in AI research and development, leading to an AI arms race that has the potential for the creation of new types of ‘weapons of mass destruction.’

For instance, the US military is currently developing AI-driven autonomous drones equipped with advanced targeting algorithms capable of identifying and engaging enemy targets with superior precision. These drones can even be programmed to attack multiple targets with explosive payloads.

The US military can also work on leveraging AI algorithms to develop autonomous cyber weapons. These algorithms can be used to seek vulnerabilities and exploit weaknesses in a target enemy’s critical infrastructure. This includes gaining access into enemy financial systems, where AI-powered cyber weapons could autonomously manipulate stock markets, disrupt banking operations, and undermine economic stability.

And as Microsoft and Tencent push the boundaries of innovation, AI will become the most important and the most dangerous strategic tool in the ongoing global contest for political, cultural, and economic dominance in the 21^st Century.

What Will The AI Arms Race Look Like?

The emergence of an AI arms race between global superpowers looms on the horizon. In this section, we delve into the unfolding dynamics of this race, exploring the strategies and initiatives driving military AI development.

Microsoft and Tencent in the Military AI Landscape

AI technology is increasingly influential in the field of military defense for both the US and China.

China’s AI Military Defense Outlook:

• Increasing investment in AI-controlled weaponry such as drones and autonomous boats.

• Integration of AI, quantum computing, and cyber capabilities through initiatives like the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force.

• Focus on enhancing command and control systems, information warfare capabilities, and intelligence gathering.

• Advancements in hypersonic weaponry, including hypersonic missiles and glide vehicles, to counter traditional U.S. strengths.

US AI Military Defense Outlook:

• Investment in AI-controlled aircraft, land vehicles, and sea drones to enhance autonomous capabilities.

• Collaboration with the Office of the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer to harness AI for decision-making, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity.

• Robust presence in space technology, including initiatives like the Space Force and investments in next-generation satellites.

• Development of AI-driven cyber warfare capabilities to defend against and launch sophisticated cyber attacks.

The competition will extend beyond conventional military domains, with cyber warfare, space, and information operations becoming increasingly contested arenas.

For instance, it is possible that AI-powered tools, such as machine learning algorithms, can be used to identify potential targets and exploit vulnerabilities in an enemy’s computer systems. This can include scanning network traffic for potential flaws in an adversary’s infrastructure, making it possible to steal sensitive information.

A recent case involves the hacking of companies involved in US vaccine development during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Microsoft identified the hackers as part of a state-sponsored Chinese group, believed to be seeking information on the development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines.

If China succeeds in stealing proprietary information from the US, it could potentially undermine the US’s technological and economic dominance.

But machine learning algorithms can also be used for defensive purposes.

When looking at future space battles, these algorithms can be used to monitor weaknesses and identify deviations from expected norms in satellite communication patterns, power consumption, or orbit characteristics, which may signal unauthorized access or tampering attempts.

In the lead up to such AI-powered space defense systems, both nations will likely pursue AI-controlled orbital weapons, which in the future may be capable of launching directed-energy attacks on both ground-based targets or military spacecrafts.

An AI arms race is likely to intensify as each side seeks to maintain military superiority, leading to a proliferation of AI-driven military systems and a complex landscape of regulatory and ethical challenges.

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Another significant area of concern is the potential for governments to use AI for information operations, which can lead to the mass manipulation of reliable sources of information.

As social media and other digital platforms become increasingly influential, the ability to manipulate public opinion and control the narrative has become highly desirable for governments and corporations.

The control over data and AI technologies could make this manipulation even more effective and widespread, with potentially far-reaching consequences for democracy and individual freedoms.

For instance, governments or malicious actors in China could leverage AI algorithms to manipulate public opinion by disseminating false narratives to a US audience on platforms like Tik Tok, leading to increased polarization and erosion of trust in democratic institutions.

These deceptive content pieces are strategically crafted to resonate with specific demographics and have the potential to go viral due to sophisticated algorithms that are designed to generate high levels of engagement.

With this in mind, it’s important to note that the military has a history of developing and using the latest technologies to enhance their capabilities, and the development of AI-controlled weapons is no exception.

If Microsoft and Tencent secure a contract with a government or military organization, the data they collect through their various services and platforms could be used to develop AI technologies for military purposes.

This data, which includes information on user behaviors, preferences, and interactions, would be leveraged to train and develop AI technologies to simulate military planning, predict enemy movements, and enhance operational effectiveness.  

This can include analyzing the collected data to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies that may be relevant to understand enemy communication patterns.

The data can also be used to train machine learning algorithms to recognize and classify specific objects, behaviors, or events of interest to military organizations. This includes using the algorithms for image recognition, natural language processing, and predictive analytics tailored to military requirements.

The implications of this are far-reaching and could have major impacts on global security and stability.

For example, such technologies could be used to help analyze and process large amounts of data from satellite imagery or communication intercepts, identifying potential targets or threats. But if the AI systems lack contextual understanding, it may lead to misguided targeting decisions.

This can impart geopolitical instability due to the danger of bad governments or actors using this technology to target individuals or populations without their knowledge or consent. The deployment of such technologies could lead to a breach of civil liberties or even an inter-state war, and there is a risk that these technologies could be used for discriminatory or oppressive purposes.

And in this context, what happens to individual privacy and digital security? Is our data being used to fuel the AI arms race?

On this note, Big Tech companies will gain unprecedented levels of power across various domains, including increased access to everyone’s data, unrivaled influence over various markets, and the ability to develop groundbreaking tech innovations that can control entire industries.

Furthermore, our focus must extend beyond who’s ahead in the AI arms race. In the lead up to developing the best AI tech, perfecting advanced AI applications will very likely outpace international regulations on the limits of AI. The fast pace of an AI arms race will make it difficult to officiate the rules of engagement concerning AI, making collaborative development near impossible.

And if companies and governments are cutting corners to create impossibly sophisticated AI, humans may not be able to actively predict if an AI looking for optimal solutions will produce dangerous outcomes.

The future outcome of an AI arms race is not just an unknown; it’s a perilous and unpredictable territory.

Does China Have Better Technology Than the US?

While it’s difficult to definitively determine which country has better AI technology, there are several signs that China has made significant progress in the field and may be ahead of the US.

• China possesses abundant data for AI training due to its large population and widespread technology use.

• Ambitious goals for AI research and development, aiming to become the world leader by 2030.

• Large-scale government funding and investment in AI research and infrastructure projects.

• Significant progress in facial recognition, autonomous vehicles, and language processing.

• Experts predict a potential shift in power dynamics with China’s rapid AI progress.

• US faces challenges including data privacy concerns, regulatory hurdles, talent shortage, and funding disparities compared to China’s investments.

What Are China’s Strategic Ambitions For AI?

China’s advancements in AI have far-reaching implications for international relations, cybersecurity, and the future of governance, making it imperative to grasp the motivations and goals driving its AI initiatives.

• China aims to leverage AI technologies not only for military applications but also for broader strategic goals such as economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and social control.

• Develop AI algorithms to use in information warfare, including for purposes such as spreading propaganda and manipulating US public opinion on social media platforms.

• Progress in developing AI capabilities, particularly in the areas of computer vision and natural language processing, which have been used in applications such as facial recognition and text analysis.

• China’s progress in military AI includes development of autonomous tanks and combat drones controlled by AI and machine learning algorithms.

• China’s AI-powered weapons allow for accurate decision-making, posing a challenge to US military dominance particularly in regions like the South China Sea.

• Assert power in the South China Sea, deploying AI-equipped unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance over contested areas with neighboring countries.

• Use AI-powered UAVs to bolster China’s control over maritime routes, assert dominance in disputed territories, and project power regionally.

• By developing proprietary algorithms and contributing to AI advancements, China seeks to assert greater influence over international AI development and regulation.

• This strategy enhances China’s soft power and global standing while allowing it to shape the trajectory of technological innovation and governance in line with its strategic interests.

Who Will Define the Rules of Engagement in AI Warfare?

As the battle for AI dominance between Microsoft and Tencent heats up, it has the potential to exacerbate geopolitical tensions between China and the US.

This is a concerning trend, as the development and deployment of AI technologies for military or political purposes could lead to increased surveillance, reduced privacy, and the potential for unconventional war.